Araz News:On 19 May 2017, the Iranian people will go to the polls to elect the next President of the Islamic Republic. The vote will be an important test for the current president Rouhani, looking for another term, and could have important consequences for the region, with particular attention to the global powers outcome of the elections.

In 2013 the election of the reformist candidate Hassan Rouhani, after two disastrous legislatures led by Ahmadinejad, had rekindled hopes. Rouhani had made the agreement on nuclear power and an end to isolation of Tehran on its flagship internationally. The July 14, 2015 the ratification by the 5 + 1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), Iran and the European Union had consecrated Rouhani national hero. The agreement had finally allowed the cancellation of a large part of the economic sanctions and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in revenue related to the sale of oil. Despite the ‘ Iranian economy continues to falter and despite a slight improvement, the unemployment rate is still very high and the discontent remains visible among Iranian citizens.

Geographically and strategically speaking, Iran is a major player in the Middle East parterre. In the Syrian conflict which entered its seventh year, Tehran remains one of the most important outsider. The stakes for the Islamic Republic of Iran in Syria remains very high and the outcome of the election seems unlikely to lead in any way to change Iranian politics in Damascus, diverting Iran from supporting one of his most important and enduring allies: the Syria of Al Assad.

Nevertheless, the reformist wing conservative victory or that could eventually have a significant impact on relations with global powers. If the four-year mandate Rouhani with the appointment of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif have been characterized by a high level of diplomacy and pragmatism, the eventual victory of the conservative Ebrahim Raisi could therefore dramatically change the global balance and return Iran to a high level of international isolation. In addition, the election of Trump and the animosity displayed against various Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, could substantially bring heavy exchanges between Tehran and Washington in case of victory the most radical wing of the country.

In this sense, the 56 year old Raisi, Judge part wing fundamentalist political elite of Tehran, is a close ally of the supreme leader, the ‘ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who chose him last year as manager of the powerful religious foundation Astan Qods Razavi. Raisi also spent many years in the backstage of the powerful judicial wing of the government, even taking up a position as prosecutor general. Raisi was also the protagonist and one of the patrons of thousands of executions during the post – revolutionary. The victory of a conservative candidate seems far from being realized, however, the electoral strategy Raisi, aims to present itself as “protector” of the interests of the poor in a sluggish economy, could eventually prove successful.

Despite the popularity level compared to four years ago appears to sharply fall, according to surveys conducted by the company Iran Poll the majority of respondents still considers Rouhani the most qualified candidates to perform the presidential duties. In particular, the current president would be significantly ahead of its nearest rivals, Raisi and Ghalibaf, in subjects such as improving relations with foreign countries, the rise of civil liberties, the total removal of the sanctions and the improvement of conditions of life for the poorest.

Once again Iran is under the spotlight and the results that emerge from the next presidential elections could lead to an important turning point for the stability of the region and relations with Allied Powers.

BY-Cristin Cappelletti

Translated by H.A